The poll blackout since Friday evening means that for the last four days of the Israeli election polls, aside from rumors regarding the parties' own internal polling, we have little indication of the final and crucial voting trends. In the absence of information, we can only go on the current polls, which – perhaps unsurprisingly – are pretty uniform and on the kind of known unknowns that we can try to foresee based on previous elections.
As the voting ends at 10 P.M. on Tuesday, the three main television channels will broadcast their exit-polls. These are usually quite accurate, and are swiftly updated with results coming in from districts which have finished their count. The picture may be quite clear by midnight; but if the gap between the two largest parties (Likud and Zionist Union) is close, and if any of the smaller parties are hovering around the electoral threshold, it may take a couple of days before the soldiers’ votes are in before we know for certain. And then of course, there will be long weeks of meetings at the president's residence and coalition horse-trading.Read More »